Einführung in den Workshop

Here we go! Before we get into modeling sustainability, let’s follow a good tradition in science and first clarify what it is.

A brief history of sustainability

Resource scarcity leads to reflection.

Sustainable development and sustainability have become almost a fashionable concept for almost any topic. But why is the term on everyone’s lips, so successful and yet at the same time so difficult to grasp in concrete terms?

To understand how today’s understanding of sustainability developed in the 1970s and 1980s, it helps to briefly illuminate from what origins the concept arose.

The term sustainability was first used in 1713 by Hans Carl von Carlowitz, a Saxon administrative official. He defines as a fundamental principle a resource use that includes the preservation of the essential properties and the natural regenerative capacity of the forest.

Also in the 18th century, early political economists such as Adam Smith and somewhat later Thomas Robert Malthus, analyzed and described the broader relationship of resource availability, carrying capacity, prosperity, and social justice.

Building on these foundations, natural scientists in the 19th and 20th centuries in particular developed various views of sustainable use of nature that emerged from their disciplines. Above all, two currents emerged that still exist today. On the one hand, anthropocentric environmental conservationists, who prioritize the protection of natural resources for sustainable consumption, and on the other hand, biocentric nature conservationists, who prioritize the preservation of nature for its intrinsic value.

Today’s understanding of sustainability

All of these currents, however, did not become the global “modern concept “ of sustainability until the 1970s. The report Limits to Growth of the Club of Rome calls for a “sustainable world system “ which is considered the first modern appearance of the term, which is rapidly taken up: e.g. the World Council of Churches Commission for 1974 formulates the idea of a “sustainable society “ and the first Green Party (in the UK) which adopted its “Manifesto for a Sustainable Society “ in 1975. However, it takes until 1987 when the World Commission on Environment and Development, the so-called Brundtland Commission publishes its report that defines “sustainable development “ as:

“[…] development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs “.

This report triggered a worldwide discussion that finally led to the “Earth Summit of Rio “ in 1992. Sensationally, 114 heads of state and countless non-governmental organizations met and agreed in the “Rio Declaration” on the principle of sustainable development - still known today as “Agenda 21”.

Today, this sustainable development is usually understood as interacting processes between the three pillars of environment, economy and society - as it were, as an image for the necessary and differently weighted compromises between (apparently) equally desirable goals.

From gray theory to concrete application

Now that we have established that the term is a lot of theory and politics, we should remember that almost exactly 50 years ago a concrete model already triggered this discussion.

So if you are interested in the scientific basics of sustainable development, you can hardly get past this “original study* Limits to Growth of the Club of Rome. It describes quantitatively and for everyone comprehensibly (and therefore also discussable and criticizable) concretely the carrying capacity problem named by Malthus for the first time on the basis of worldwide effect mechanisms of exactly these three pillars environment, economy and society.

As a basis for the report, Jay Forrester developed a mathematical model, the so-called world model, which describes the essential connections and interactions on the basis of equations. In order to come to a concrete statement on this basis, all data required and available at that time were fed in. Since this model was developed computer-aided, it can make predictions through simulations. Together with other scientists, his students Donella and Dennis Meadows then carried out their analyses for the Limits to Growth report on the basis of this model.

System dynamics - the world model 30 years later

The simulations of the were the starting point to show quantitatively the limits of growth without real world experiment and thus to show again the necessity of resource scarcity and sensible use of resources and to put it up for discussion.

Forrester had not only developed the world model but also, in collaboration with MIT colleagues, developed the concept of graphical dynamic modeling. This is a significant simplification compared to conventional programming by graphical elements to which corresponding formulas and effects are assigned.

Since both the world model and such programming environments have been constantly developed further, we can today fall back on a multitude of software programs and world models. The best known is probably the World 3 model from 2008. Due to its “fame” it is available in almost all system dynamics programming environments.

Following the workshop path, this is just a short introduction for which you should spend 15 minutes.

For a first short introduction, you can use the online programming environment Insightmaker, which offers a great performance opportunity into system dynamics.

You can view the World 3 Model, i.e. the current version of the original world model online and run your own model scenarios (simulation) using the browser–based software Insightmaker.

Try this…

Run a simulation with the model and view the results.
Look at the graph and describe what the effect is on you.
Look at the model - what is your impression? How does it affect you?